Metallurg Vidnoye 1–4 Kolomna: Result & Stats

Metallurg Vidnoye

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Kolomna

11/15/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Metallurg Vidnoye50%

×Draw21%

Kolomna29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metallurg VidnoyeExpected goals in this matchKolomna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.54

Metallurg Vidnoye

2.08

Kolomna

1.54

Metallurg Vidnoye creates 35% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 55 away

1.53

creates per match

0.76

2.33

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Metallurg Vidnoye

1.53

Kolomna

0.76

allows per match

Metallurg Vidnoye

2.33

Kolomna

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Kolomna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Vidnoye ↓

Kolomna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Metallurg Vidnoye or draw

71%

Metallurg Vidnoye or Kolomna

79%

Draw or Kolomna

50%

Winning margin

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+

29%

Kolomna wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals

87%

Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals

61%

Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals

34%

Kolomna 1+ goals

79%

Kolomna 2+ goals

45%

Kolomna 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)

64%

Kolomna (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Vidnoye at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.33 · 30 matches

Kolomna away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.62 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 1.53 + Kolomna defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.08

Kolomna attack 0.76 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more

50%

level

21%

Kolomna scores more

29%

Metallurg Vidnoye at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Metallurg Vidnoye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff