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Metallurg Vidnoye vs Khimki II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Khimki II
Khimki II
8/14/2020Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Metallurg Vidnoye35%
×Draw22%
Khimki II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.68
Khimki II
1.85

Khimki II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 74 away

creates per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.53
Khimki II
1.36

allows per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
2.33
Khimki II
1.82

finishing

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par
Khimki II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Vidnoye ↓

Khimki II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Metallurg Vidnoye or draw
58%
Metallurg Vidnoye or Khimki II
78%
Draw or Khimki II
65%

Winning margin

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
18%
Khimki II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
81%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
50%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
24%
Khimki II 1+ goals
84%
Khimki II 2+ goals
55%
Khimki II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
46%
Khimki II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Vidnoye at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.33 · 30 matches

Khimki II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 1.53 + Khimki II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.68

Khimki II attack 1.36 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
35%
level
22%
Khimki II scores more
42%

Khimki II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Khimki II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Metallurg Vidnoye 3–0 Khimki II

Metallurg Vidnoye beat Khimki II 3-0 in Second League - Group 3 on August 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe in Vidnoye.