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Metallurg Lipetsk vs Znamya Noginsk — Cup 2019

Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
FT
0 – 3
Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
8/19/2020CupCup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk16%
×Draw23%
Znamya Noginsk61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Lipetsk
0.80
Znamya Noginsk
1.80

Znamya Noginsk creates 125% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
0.60
Znamya Noginsk
1.80

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.80
Znamya Noginsk
1.00

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par
Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Znamya Noginsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw
39%
Metallurg Lipetsk or Znamya Noginsk
77%
Draw or Znamya Noginsk
84%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
5%
Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
55%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
19%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
5%
Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
83%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
54%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
21%
Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.60 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.80 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
16%
level
23%
Znamya Noginsk scores more
61%

Znamya Noginsk at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Znamya Noginsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Metallurg Lipetsk 0–3 Znamya Noginsk

Znamya Noginsk beat Metallurg Lipetsk 3-0 in Cup on August 19, 2020.