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Metallurg Lipetsk vs Volga Ulyanovsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
8/3/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 3Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk31%
×Draw29%
Volga Ulyanovsk41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.20

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.11
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.33

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.06
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.89

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw
59%
Metallurg Lipetsk or Volga Ulyanovsk
71%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
69%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
11%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
63%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
26%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
8%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
70%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
34%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
43%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.11 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.33 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
31%
level
29%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
41%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metallurg Lipetsk vs Volga Ulyanovsk

Volga Ulyanovsk beat Metallurg Lipetsk 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Lipetsk.