Metallurg Lipetsk 3–2 Tom Tomsk: Result & Stats

Metallurg Lipetsk

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Tom Tomsk

M. Sazonov 88'

R. Voydel 40'

A. Kutjin 32' (pen)

K. Korzh 18'

N. Kirsanov 14'

7/11/2021

First League · Round 1Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk30%

×Draw29%

Tom Tomsk41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metallurg LipetskExpected goals in this matchTom Tomsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.22

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.01

Tom Tomsk

1.22

Tom Tomsk creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 73 away

0.68

creates per match

0.90

1.53

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.68

Tom Tomsk

0.90

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.53

Tom Tomsk

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Tom Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Tom Tomsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw

59%

Metallurg Lipetsk or Tom Tomsk

71%

Draw or Tom Tomsk

70%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

11%

Tom Tomsk wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

64%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

27%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

8%

Tom Tomsk 1+ goals

70%

Tom Tomsk 2+ goals

34%

Tom Tomsk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

43%

Tom Tomsk (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Tom Tomsk away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.34 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.68 + Tom Tomsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.01

Tom Tomsk attack 0.90 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

30%

level

29%

Tom Tomsk scores more

41%

Tom Tomsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tom Tomsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

9'

14'

16'

18'

30'

31'

31'

32'

A. KutjinPenalty

36'

40'

42'

45+4'

62'

N. Ivannikov← R. Shapovalov

68'

I. Viznovich← A. Ovchinnikov

68'

A. Seraskhov← V. Pochivalin

72'

Konstantin Titov

78'

A. Stavpets← N. Kirsanov

87'

V. Cherny← D. Poyarkov

87'

R. Akhvlediani← A. Kutjin

88'

M. Sazonov

Metallurg4-4-2

Tom4-3-3

20

Dmitriev

21

Korobov

18

⚽

▼

Kirsanov

10

⚽

Korzh

96

Kubyshkin

7

▼

Kayumov

28

Semeykin

26

▼

4

80

35

16

20

⚽

Voydel

3

⚽

Sazonov

33

Belov

2

Titov

15

▼

Shapovalo

29

Frolov

25

▼

Poyarkov

10

▼

Ovchinnik

7

Arustamya

48

⚽

▼

Kutjin

Manager: S. Mashnin

62'▲N. Ivannikov←▼R. Shapovalov

68'▲I. Viznovich←▼A. Ovchinnikov

87'▲V. Cherny←▼D. Poyarkov

87'▲R. Akhvlediani←▼A. Kutjin

Metallurg Lipetsk substitutes

17Ivannikov11Viznovich4Cherny9Akhvlediani1Ikanovich8Ivankov19Glebov

Manager: S. Zhukov

42'▲A. Mamin←▼D. Kayumov

68'▲A. Seraskhov←▼V. Pochivalin

78'▲A. Stavpets←▼N. Kirsanov

Tom Tomsk substitutes

46Mamin2Seraskhov61Stavpets16Savinykh17Radostev70Bezzubov

Match Recap: Metallurg Lipetsk vs Tom Tomsk

Metallurg Lipetsk beat Tom Tomsk 3-2 in First League on July 11, 2021.

Goals: N. Kirsanov (14'), K. Korzh (18'), A. Kutjin (32' pen), R. Voydel (40'), M. Sazonov (88').

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.

Metallurg Lipetsk vs Tom Tomsk — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Metallurg Lipetsk vs Tom Tomsk