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Metallurg Lipetsk vs Sakhalin — Second League - Group 3 2020

Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sakhalin
Sakhalin
4/6/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk63%
×Draw22%
Sakhalin15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.81
Sakhalin
0.74

Metallurg Lipetsk creates 145% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 70 away

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.76
Sakhalin
0.77

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
0.72
Sakhalin
1.86

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par
Sakhalin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Sakhalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw
85%
Metallurg Lipetsk or Sakhalin
78%
Draw or Sakhalin
37%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
37%
Sakhalin wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
84%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
54%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
27%
Sakhalin 1+ goals
52%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
17%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
81%
Sakhalin (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.72 · 54 matches

Sakhalin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.86 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.76 + Sakhalin defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Sakhalin attack 0.77 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
63%
level
22%
Sakhalin scores more
15%

Metallurg Lipetsk at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Metallurg Lipetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metallurg Lipetsk vs Sakhalin

Metallurg Lipetsk beat Sakhalin 3-0 in Second League - Group 3 on April 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Lipetsk.