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Metallurg Lipetsk vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
10/28/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 16Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk36%
×Draw28%
Rodina Moskva II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.16
Rodina Moskva II
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.11
Rodina Moskva II
1.24

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.06
Rodina Moskva II
1.20

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw
64%
Metallurg Lipetsk or Rodina Moskva II
72%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
64%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
15%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
69%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
32%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
11%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
68%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
32%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
50%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.11 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.24 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
36%
level
28%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
36%

Metallurg Lipetsk at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Metallurg Lipetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metallurg Lipetsk vs Rodina Moskva II

Metallurg Lipetsk beat Rodina Moskva II 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Lipetsk.