Metallurg Lipetsk vs Khimik-Arsenal — Second League - Group 3 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Metallurg Lipetsk50%
Khimik-Arsenal25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Metallurg Lipetsk creates 54% more chances
Season form · 54 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Metallurg Lipetsk ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.72 · 54 matches
Khimik-Arsenal away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.76 + Khimik-Arsenal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52
Khimik-Arsenal attack 1.27 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Metallurg Lipetsk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Metallurg Lipetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Metallurg Lipetsk substitutes
Khimik-Arsenal substitutes
Head to Head
Metallurg Lipetsk
Ryazan
Saturn Ramenskoye
Salyut-Belgorod
FK Sokol Saratov
Strogino
KalugaKhimik-Arsenal
Znamya Noginsk
Krasnyy-SGAFKST
Avangard Kursk
Khimki II
Kvant
Metallurg Vidnoye
Fakel II
SakhalinIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Metallurg Lipetsk host Khimik-Arsenal on Sunday, 27 September 2020 at 12:00. The match is part of the Second League - Group 3 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: Metallurg Lipetsk vs Khimik-Arsenal
Metallurg Lipetsk and Khimik-Arsenal drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on September 27, 2020.
Goals: I. Glebov (28'), K. Antipov (86').
The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Lipetsk.