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Metallurg Lipetsk vs Forte Taganrog — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
10/14/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 14Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk50%
×Draw25%
Forte Taganrog25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.56
Forte Taganrog
1.03

Metallurg Lipetsk creates 51% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.11
Forte Taganrog
1.00

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.06
Forte Taganrog
2.00

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par
Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Forte Taganrog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw
75%
Metallurg Lipetsk or Forte Taganrog
75%
Draw or Forte Taganrog
50%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
26%
Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
79%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
46%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
21%
Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
64%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
28%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
66%
Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.11 + Forte Taganrog defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Forte Taganrog attack 1.00 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
50%
level
25%
Forte Taganrog scores more
25%

Metallurg Lipetsk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Metallurg Lipetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Metallurg Lipetsk 1–0 Forte Taganrog

Metallurg Lipetsk beat Forte Taganrog 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Lipetsk.