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Metallurg Lipetsk vs Fakel II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fakel II
Fakel II
8/9/2020Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk71%
×Draw19%
Fakel II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Lipetsk
2.06
Fakel II
0.63

Metallurg Lipetsk creates 227% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 30 away

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.76
Fakel II
0.53

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
0.72
Fakel II
2.37

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par
Fakel II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Fakel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw
90%
Metallurg Lipetsk or Fakel II
81%
Draw or Fakel II
29%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
45%
Fakel II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
87%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
61%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
34%
Fakel II 1+ goals
47%
Fakel II 2+ goals
13%
Fakel II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
87%
Fakel II (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.72 · 54 matches

Fakel II away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.76 + Fakel II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.06

Fakel II attack 0.53 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
71%
level
19%
Fakel II scores more
10%

Metallurg Lipetsk at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Metallurg Lipetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Metallurg Lipetsk 2–0 Fakel II

Metallurg Lipetsk beat Fakel II 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on August 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Lipetsk.