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Metallurg Lipetsk vs Akron — First League 2018

Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Akron
Akron
7/25/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk28%
×Draw29%
Akron44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Lipetsk
0.93
Akron
1.25

Akron creates 34% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 74 away

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
0.68
Akron
0.97

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.53
Akron
1.18

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par
Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Akron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw
56%
Metallurg Lipetsk or Akron
71%
Draw or Akron
72%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
10%
Akron wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
61%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
24%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
7%
Akron 1+ goals
71%
Akron 2+ goals
36%
Akron 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
39%
Akron (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Akron away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.68 + Akron defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.93

Akron attack 0.97 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
28%
level
29%
Akron scores more
44%

Akron at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Metallurg Lipetsk 2–2 Akron

Metallurg Lipetsk and Akron drew 2-2 in First League on July 25, 2021.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.