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Metalleghe-BSI Jajce vs Travnik — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
FT
4 – 1
Travnik
Travnik
11/2/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 13Stadion Mračaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce61%
×Draw22%
Travnik17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
1.92
Travnik
0.90

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce creates 113% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 80 away

creates per match

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
2.13
Travnik
0.91

allows per match

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.88
Travnik
1.71

finishing

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce+0.00on par
Travnik+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce ↓

Travnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce or draw
83%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce or Travnik
78%
Draw or Travnik
39%

Winning margin

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce wins by 2+
36%
Travnik wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 1+ goals
85%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2+ goals
57%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 3+ goals
30%
Travnik 1+ goals
59%
Travnik 2+ goals
23%
Travnik 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce (draw refunded)
78%
Travnik (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Travnik away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.71 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce attack 2.13 + Travnik defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.92

Travnik attack 0.91 + Metalleghe-BSI Jajce defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce scores more
61%
level
22%
Travnik scores more
17%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Metalleghe-BSI Jajce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 4–1 Travnik

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce beat Travnik 4-1 in 1st League - FBiH on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Mračaj in Jajce.