Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2–2 Čapljina: Result & Stats

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

FT

2 – 2

Čapljina

11/16/2019

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 15Stadion Mračaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce64%

×Draw21%

Čapljina16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalleghe-BSI JajceExpected goals in this matchČapljina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.90

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

2.04

Čapljina

0.90

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce creates 127% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

2.13

creates per match

0.91

0.88

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

2.13

Čapljina

0.91

allows per match

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

0.88

Čapljina

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce+0.00on par

Čapljina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce ↓

Čapljina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce or draw

84%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce or Čapljina

79%

Draw or Čapljina

36%

Winning margin

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce wins by 2+

39%

Čapljina wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 1+ goals

87%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2+ goals

60%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 3+ goals

33%

Čapljina 1+ goals

59%

Čapljina 2+ goals

23%

Čapljina 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce (draw refunded)

80%

Čapljina (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Čapljina away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce attack 2.13 + Čapljina defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.04

Čapljina attack 0.91 + Metalleghe-BSI Jajce defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce scores more

64%

level

21%

Čapljina scores more

16%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Metalleghe-BSI Jajce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff