Metalist 1925 U19 1–1 Vorskla U19: Result & Stats

Metalist 1925 U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vorskla U19

5/3/2024

U19 League · Round 27Kniazha-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Metalist 1925 U1946%

×Draw25%

Vorskla U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalist 1925 U19Expected goals in this matchVorskla U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.22

Metalist 1925 U19

1.58

Vorskla U19

1.22

Metalist 1925 U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.50

creates per match

0.97

1.47

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Metalist 1925 U19

1.50

Vorskla U19

0.97

allows per match

Metalist 1925 U19

1.47

Vorskla U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalist 1925 U19+0.00on par

Vorskla U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 U19 ↓

Vorskla U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 U19 or draw

71%

Metalist 1925 U19 or Vorskla U19

75%

Draw or Vorskla U19

54%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 U19 wins by 2+

23%

Vorskla U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 U19 1+ goals

79%

Metalist 1925 U19 2+ goals

47%

Metalist 1925 U19 3+ goals

21%

Vorskla U19 1+ goals

70%

Vorskla U19 2+ goals

34%

Vorskla U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Vorskla U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Vorskla U19 away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 U19 attack 1.50 + Vorskla U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vorskla U19 attack 0.97 + Metalist 1925 U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Metalist 1925 U19 scores more

46%

level

25%

Vorskla U19 scores more

29%

Metalist 1925 U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Metalist 1925 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff