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Metalist 1925 U19 vs Minaj U19 — U19 League 2023

Metalist 1925 U19
Metalist 1925 U19
FT
2 – 1
Minaj U19
Minaj U19
8/18/2023U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 4Kniazha-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Metalist 1925 U1948%
×Draw24%
Minaj U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalist 1925 U19
1.69
Minaj U19
1.23

Metalist 1925 U19 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Metalist 1925 U19
1.50
Minaj U19
1.00

allows per match

Metalist 1925 U19
1.47
Minaj U19
1.87

finishing

Metalist 1925 U19+0.00on par
Minaj U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 U19 ↓

Minaj U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 U19 or draw
72%
Metalist 1925 U19 or Minaj U19
76%
Draw or Minaj U19
52%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 U19 wins by 2+
26%
Minaj U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 U19 1+ goals
82%
Metalist 1925 U19 2+ goals
50%
Metalist 1925 U19 3+ goals
24%
Minaj U19 1+ goals
71%
Minaj U19 2+ goals
35%
Minaj U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 U19 (draw refunded)
63%
Minaj U19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Minaj U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 U19 attack 1.50 + Minaj U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.69

Minaj U19 attack 1.00 + Metalist 1925 U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Metalist 1925 U19 scores more
48%
level
24%
Minaj U19 scores more
28%

Metalist 1925 U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Metalist 1925 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Metalist 1925 U19 2–1 Minaj U19

Metalist 1925 U19 beat Minaj U19 2-1 in U19 League on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Kniazha-Arena in Shchaslyve.