Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs CF Montreal — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
CF Montreal
CF Montreal
1/29/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv42%
×Draw23%
CF Montreal35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.71
CF Montreal
1.55

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.43
CF Montreal
1.67

allows per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.43
CF Montreal
2.00

finishing

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv+0.00on par
CF Montreal+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ↓

CF Montreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or draw
65%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or CF Montreal
77%
Draw or CF Montreal
58%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+
22%
CF Montreal wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals
82%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals
51%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals
24%
CF Montreal 1+ goals
79%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
46%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)
54%
CF Montreal (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.43 + CF Montreal defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

CF Montreal attack 1.67 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more
42%
level
23%
CF Montreal scores more
35%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Metalist 1925 Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs CF Montreal

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv beat CF Montreal 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 29, 2026.