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Metalac GM vs Zarkovo — Prva Liga 2018

Metalac GM
Metalac GM
FT
0 – 0
Zarkovo
Zarkovo
8/25/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 3Stadion FK Metalac (Gornji Milanovac)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Metalac GM47%
×Draw27%
Zarkovo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalac GM
1.41
Zarkovo
0.98

Metalac GM creates 44% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 69 away

creates per match

Metalac GM
1.49
Zarkovo
1.10

allows per match

Metalac GM
0.86
Zarkovo
1.32

finishing

Metalac GM+0.00on par
Zarkovo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalac GM ↓

Zarkovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Metalac GM or draw
74%
Metalac GM or Zarkovo
73%
Draw or Zarkovo
53%

Winning margin

Metalac GM wins by 2+
23%
Zarkovo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Metalac GM 1+ goals
76%
Metalac GM 2+ goals
41%
Metalac GM 3+ goals
17%
Zarkovo 1+ goals
62%
Zarkovo 2+ goals
26%
Zarkovo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Metalac GM (draw refunded)
64%
Zarkovo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalac GM at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 71 matches

Zarkovo away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalac GM attack 1.49 + Zarkovo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Zarkovo attack 1.10 + Metalac GM defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Metalac GM scores more
47%
level
27%
Zarkovo scores more
26%

Metalac GM at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Metalac GM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Metalac GM 0–0 Zarkovo

Metalac GM and Zarkovo drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion FK Metalac (Gornji Milanovac).