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Metalac GM vs Tekstilac Odžaci — Prva Liga 2018

Metalac GM
Metalac GM
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
8/19/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 3Stadion FK Metalac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Metalac GM45%
×Draw29%
Tekstilac Odžaci26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalac GM
1.23
Tekstilac Odžaci
0.85

Metalac GM creates 45% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 37 away

creates per match

Metalac GM
1.49
Tekstilac Odžaci
0.84

allows per match

Metalac GM
0.86
Tekstilac Odžaci
0.97

finishing

Metalac GM+0.00on par
Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalac GM ↓

Tekstilac Odžaci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Metalac GM or draw
74%
Metalac GM or Tekstilac Odžaci
71%
Draw or Tekstilac Odžaci
55%

Winning margin

Metalac GM wins by 2+
20%
Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Metalac GM 1+ goals
71%
Metalac GM 2+ goals
35%
Metalac GM 3+ goals
13%
Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
57%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
21%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Metalac GM (draw refunded)
64%
Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalac GM at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 71 matches

Tekstilac Odžaci away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalac GM attack 1.49 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 0.84 + Metalac GM defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Metalac GM scores more
45%
level
29%
Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
26%

Metalac GM at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Metalac GM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metalac GM vs Tekstilac Odžaci

Metalac GM and Tekstilac Odžaci drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Metalac in Gornji Milanovac.