Metalac GM 4–2 RFK Novi Sad: Result & Stats

Metalac GM

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

RFK Novi Sad

4/14/2024

Prva Liga · Round 30Stadion FK Metalac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Metalac GM63%

×Draw22%

RFK Novi Sad16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalac GMExpected goals in this matchRFK Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.84

Metalac GM

1.92

RFK Novi Sad

0.84

Metalac GM creates 129% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 23 away

1.49

creates per match

0.83

0.86

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Metalac GM

1.49

RFK Novi Sad

0.83

allows per match

Metalac GM

0.86

RFK Novi Sad

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalac GM+0.00on par

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalac GM ↓

RFK Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Metalac GM or draw

84%

Metalac GM or RFK Novi Sad

78%

Draw or RFK Novi Sad

37%

Winning margin

Metalac GM wins by 2+

38%

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Metalac GM 1+ goals

85%

Metalac GM 2+ goals

57%

Metalac GM 3+ goals

30%

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals

57%

RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals

21%

RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Metalac GM (draw refunded)

80%

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalac GM at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 71 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalac GM attack 1.49 + RFK Novi Sad defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.92

RFK Novi Sad attack 0.83 + Metalac GM defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Metalac GM scores more

63%

level

22%

RFK Novi Sad scores more

16%

Metalac GM at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Metalac GM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff