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Metalac GM vs OFK Vršac — Prva Liga 2018

Metalac GM
Metalac GM
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
3/6/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 23Stadion FK Metalac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Metalac GM50%
×Draw27%
OFK Vršac23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalac GM
1.42
OFK Vršac
0.88

Metalac GM creates 61% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 73 away

creates per match

Metalac GM
1.49
OFK Vršac
0.89

allows per match

Metalac GM
0.86
OFK Vršac
1.34

finishing

Metalac GM+0.00on par
OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalac GM ↓

OFK Vršac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Metalac GM or draw
77%
Metalac GM or OFK Vršac
73%
Draw or OFK Vršac
50%

Winning margin

Metalac GM wins by 2+
24%
OFK Vršac wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Metalac GM 1+ goals
76%
Metalac GM 2+ goals
41%
Metalac GM 3+ goals
17%
OFK Vršac 1+ goals
59%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
22%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Metalac GM (draw refunded)
68%
OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalac GM at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 71 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalac GM attack 1.49 + OFK Vršac defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

OFK Vršac attack 0.89 + Metalac GM defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Metalac GM scores more
50%
level
27%
OFK Vršac scores more
23%

Metalac GM at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Metalac GM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Metalac GM 1–1 OFK Vršac

Metalac GM and OFK Vršac drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on March 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Metalac in Gornji Milanovac.