Metalac GM 1–1 Javor: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Metalac GM

FT

1 – 1

Javor

5/1/2019

Prva Liga · Championship Round - 6Stadion FK Metalac (Gornji Milanovac)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Metalac GM34%

×Draw31%

Javor35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalac GMExpected goals in this matchJavor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.02

Metalac GM

0.99

Javor

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 38 away

1.28

creates per match

1.21

0.83

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Metalac GM

1.28

Javor

1.21

allows per match

Metalac GM

0.83

Javor

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalac GM+0.00on par

Javor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalac GM ↓

Javor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Metalac GM or draw

65%

Metalac GM or Javor

69%

Draw or Javor

66%

Winning margin

Metalac GM wins by 2+

13%

Javor wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Metalac GM 1+ goals

63%

Metalac GM 2+ goals

26%

Metalac GM 3+ goals

8%

Javor 1+ goals

64%

Javor 2+ goals

27%

Javor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Metalac GM (draw refunded)

49%

Javor (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalac GM at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.83 · 54 matches

Javor away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalac GM attack 1.28 + Javor defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.99

Javor attack 1.21 + Metalac GM defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Metalac GM scores more

34%

level

31%

Javor scores more

35%

Javor at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Javor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff