Metalac GM 1–3 Grafičar: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Metalac GM

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Grafičar

8/5/2023

Prva Liga · Round 1Stadion FK Metalac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Metalac GM47%

×Draw27%

Grafičar26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalac GMExpected goals in this matchGrafičar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.00

Metalac GM

1.44

Grafičar

1.00

Metalac GM creates 44% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 125 away

1.49

creates per match

1.14

0.86

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Metalac GM

1.49

Grafičar

1.14

allows per match

Metalac GM

0.86

Grafičar

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalac GM+0.00on par

Grafičar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalac GM ↓

Grafičar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Metalac GM or draw

74%

Metalac GM or Grafičar

73%

Draw or Grafičar

53%

Winning margin

Metalac GM wins by 2+

23%

Grafičar wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Metalac GM 1+ goals

76%

Metalac GM 2+ goals

42%

Metalac GM 3+ goals

18%

Grafičar 1+ goals

63%

Grafičar 2+ goals

26%

Grafičar 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Metalac GM (draw refunded)

64%

Grafičar (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalac GM at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 71 matches

Grafičar away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.38 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalac GM attack 1.49 + Grafičar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Grafičar attack 1.14 + Metalac GM defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Metalac GM scores more

47%

level

27%

Grafičar scores more

26%

Metalac GM at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Metalac GM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff