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Metal Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2026

Metal Kharkiv
Metal Kharkiv
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
V. Brazhko 85' (pen)
M. Imerekov 27'
Y. Shakhov 21'
E. Guerrero 7'
O. Mizyuk 1' (OG)
5/14/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Metal Kharkiv22%
×Draw23%
Zorya Luhansk55%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metal Kharkiv
1.09
Zorya Luhansk
1.84

Zorya Luhansk creates 69% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 97 away

creates per match

Metal Kharkiv
0.93
Zorya Luhansk
1.62

allows per match

Metal Kharkiv
2.07
Zorya Luhansk
1.25

finishing

Metal Kharkiv+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metal Kharkiv ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Metal Kharkiv or draw
45%
Metal Kharkiv or Zorya Luhansk
77%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
78%

Winning margin

Metal Kharkiv wins by 2+
8%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Metal Kharkiv 1+ goals
66%
Metal Kharkiv 2+ goals
30%
Metal Kharkiv 3+ goals
10%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
84%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
55%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Metal Kharkiv (draw refunded)
29%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metal Kharkiv at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.25 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metal Kharkiv attack 0.93 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.62 + Metal Kharkiv defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Metal Kharkiv scores more
22%
level
23%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
55%

Zorya Luhansk at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
O. MizyukOwn goal
7'
E. Guerrero↳ N. Rusyn
21'
Y. Shakhov
27'
M. Imerekov↳ R. Vantukh
31'
Yehor Demchenko
33'
O. Nikolyshyn← A. Chidomere
46'
Y. Ryazantsev← E. Kartushov
46'
M. Bagachanskyi← S. Panasenko
46'
I. Snurnitsyn← R. Vantukh
46'
V. Pogorilyi← N. Rusyn
52'
Ihor Snurnitsyn
56'
Oleksandr Myzyuk
66'
O. Khakhlyov← D. Antyukh
67'
D. Myshnov← S. Buletsa
76'
Yevheniy Ryazantsev
77'
P. Polehenko← E. Guerrero
82'
K. Vlaha← Y. Romanyuk
85'
V. BrazhkoPenalty
87'
H. Sinchak← V. Naumets

Possession

49%Metal

Shots

7Metal

Statistics

MetalZorya
Overview
49%Possession51%
7Total Shots18
2Corners13
8Fouls13
Shots
7Total Shots18
2On Target7
3Off Target11
Passing
49%Possession51%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Metal Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk

Zorya Luhansk beat Metal Kharkiv 5-0 in Premier League on May 14, 2023.

Goals: O. Mizyuk (1' o.g.), E. Guerrero (7'), Y. Shakhov (21'), M. Imerekov (27'), V. Brazhko (85' pen).

Zorya Luhansk controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Uzhhorod.