Metal Kharkiv 0–2 UCSA: Result & Stats

Metal Kharkiv

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

UCSA

Y. Selin 52'

M. Sytnykov 33'

4/18/2025

Persha Liga · Championship Round - 3Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Metal Kharkiv45%

×Draw26%

UCSA29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metal KharkivExpected goals in this matchUCSA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.10

Metal Kharkiv

1.45

UCSA

1.10

Metal Kharkiv creates 32% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 28 away

1.44

creates per match

1.29

0.92

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Metal Kharkiv

1.44

UCSA

1.29

allows per match

Metal Kharkiv

0.92

UCSA

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metal Kharkiv+0.00on par

UCSA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metal Kharkiv ↓

UCSA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Metal Kharkiv or draw

71%

Metal Kharkiv or UCSA

74%

Draw or UCSA

55%

Winning margin

Metal Kharkiv wins by 2+

22%

UCSA wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Metal Kharkiv 1+ goals

77%

Metal Kharkiv 2+ goals

42%

Metal Kharkiv 3+ goals

18%

UCSA 1+ goals

67%

UCSA 2+ goals

30%

UCSA 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Metal Kharkiv (draw refunded)

61%

UCSA (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metal Kharkiv at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

UCSA away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metal Kharkiv attack 1.44 + UCSA defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.45

UCSA attack 1.29 + Metal Kharkiv defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Metal Kharkiv scores more

45%

level

26%

UCSA scores more

29%

Metal Kharkiv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Metal Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

M. Sytnykov

46'

M. Orikhovskyi← O. Horiainov

52'

Y. Selin

61'

A. Chidomere← Y. Sherstiuk

65'

R. Yuvkhimets

65'

Matheus Pagliarini← P. Castro

70'

Y. Isaenko

72'

Matheus Fogo← R. Yuvkhymets

72'

R. Debelko← Vavá

87'

M. Shakhmaiev← D. Vernattus

88'

A. Yevdokymov← M. Sytnykov

88'

Romarinho← Pedro Acácio

Metal

UCSA

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Anishchenko

46'▲M. Orikhovskyi←▼O. Horiainov

61'▲A. Chidomere←▼Y. Sherstiuk

87'▲M. Shakhmaiev←▼D. Vernattus

Metal Kharkiv substitutes

OrikhovskyiChidomereShakhmaievShmatkoLembaPalianychkaShevchenkoMyziukPletniov

Manager: D. Chyrykal

65'▲Matheus Pagliarini←▼P. Castro

72'▲Matheus Fogo←▼R. Yuvkhymets

72'▲R. Debelko←▼Vavá

88'▲A. Yevdokymov←▼M. Sytnykov

88'▲Romarinho←▼Pedro Acácio

UCSA substitutes

PagliariniFogoDebelkoYevdokymovRomarinhoBarantsovKononovTatarkovZozulia

Persha Liga: Metal Kharkiv 0–2 UCSA

UCSA beat Metal Kharkiv 2-0 in Persha Liga on April 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Sytnykov (33'), Y. Selin (52').

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Uzhhorod.

Metal Kharkiv vs UCSA — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Persha Liga: Metal Kharkiv 0–2 UCSA