Metal Kharkiv 1–1 Nyva Buzova: Result & Stats

Metal Kharkiv

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nyva Buzova

Y. Riazantsev 56'

Gabriel Gomes 90+3' (OG)

11/18/2023

Persha Liga · Round 17Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Metal Kharkiv40%

×Draw28%

Nyva Buzova32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metal KharkivExpected goals in this matchNyva Buzova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.06

Metal Kharkiv

1.22

Nyva Buzova

1.06

Metal Kharkiv creates 15% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 14 away

1.44

creates per match

1.21

0.92

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Metal Kharkiv

1.44

Nyva Buzova

1.21

allows per match

Metal Kharkiv

0.92

Nyva Buzova

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metal Kharkiv+0.00on par

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metal Kharkiv ↓

Nyva Buzova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Metal Kharkiv or draw

68%

Metal Kharkiv or Nyva Buzova

72%

Draw or Nyva Buzova

60%

Winning margin

Metal Kharkiv wins by 2+

17%

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Metal Kharkiv 1+ goals

70%

Metal Kharkiv 2+ goals

34%

Metal Kharkiv 3+ goals

12%

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

65%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

29%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Metal Kharkiv (draw refunded)

56%

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metal Kharkiv at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

Nyva Buzova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metal Kharkiv attack 1.44 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

Nyva Buzova attack 1.21 + Metal Kharkiv defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Metal Kharkiv scores more

40%

level

28%

Nyva Buzova scores more

32%

Metal Kharkiv at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Metal Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Y. Ryazantsev

36'

Y. Misyura

40'

Gabriel Gomes

46'

V. Lutsiv← A. Busko

56'

Y. Riazantsev

66'

M. Serhiichuk← Y. Shalfieiev

66'

V. Tymenko← D. Knysh

66'

Y. Korokhov← P. Zakhidnyi

78'

D. Tkachenko← V. Nekhtii

81'

D. Kaidalov← Y. Riazantsev

81'

D. Vernattus← K. Dihtiar

82'

K. Prokopchuk

89'

D. Prykhodko← Y. Isaienko

90+2'

Y. Krasnikov← H. Synchuk

90+3'

Gabriel GomesOwn goal

Metal

Nyva

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Anishchenko

46'▲V. Lutsiv←▼A. Busko

81'▲D. Kaidalov←▼Y. Riazantsev

81'▲D. Vernattus←▼K. Dihtiar

89'▲D. Prykhodko←▼Y. Isaienko

90+2'▲Y. Krasnikov←▼H. Synchuk

Metal Kharkiv substitutes

LutsivKaidalovVernattusPrykhodkoKrasnikovFastovAbramovHoriainovHorenkoMorarenkoShumilovHolubka

Manager: I. Zhabchenko

66'▲M. Serhiichuk←▼Y. Shalfieiev

66'▲V. Tymenko←▼D. Knysh

66'▲Y. Korokhov←▼P. Zakhidnyi

78'▲D. Tkachenko←▼V. Nekhtii

Nyva Buzova substitutes

SerhiichukTymenkoKorokhovTkachenkoMelnykShamychKalininZakharchukMnyshenko

Persha Liga: Metal Kharkiv 1–1 Nyva Buzova

Metal Kharkiv and Nyva Buzova drew 1-1 in Persha Liga on November 18, 2023.

Goals: Y. Riazantsev (56'), Gabriel Gomes (90+3' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Uzhhorod.

Metal Kharkiv vs Nyva Buzova — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Persha Liga: Metal Kharkiv 1–1 Nyva Buzova