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Metal Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — Persha Liga 2019

Metal Kharkiv
Metal Kharkiv
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
7/29/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 1Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Metal Kharkiv38%
×Draw30%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metal Kharkiv
1.13
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.00

Metal Kharkiv creates 13% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 36 away

creates per match

Metal Kharkiv
1.44
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.08

allows per match

Metal Kharkiv
0.92
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0.81

finishing

Metal Kharkiv+0.00on par
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metal Kharkiv ↓

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Metal Kharkiv or draw
68%
Metal Kharkiv or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
70%
Draw or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
62%

Winning margin

Metal Kharkiv wins by 2+
16%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Metal Kharkiv 1+ goals
68%
Metal Kharkiv 2+ goals
31%
Metal Kharkiv 3+ goals
11%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals
63%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals
26%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Metal Kharkiv (draw refunded)
55%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metal Kharkiv at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metal Kharkiv attack 1.44 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.13

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.08 + Metal Kharkiv defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Metal Kharkiv scores more
38%
level
30%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more
32%

Metal Kharkiv at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Metal Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Metal Kharkiv 0–1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Metal Kharkiv 1-0 in Persha Liga on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Uzhhorod.