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Metal Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv — Premier League 2026

Metal Kharkiv
Metal Kharkiv
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
M. Pryadun 81'
K. Vivcharenko 90+1'
V. Vanat 75'
O. Syrota 70'
4/28/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Metal Kharkiv15%
×Draw20%
Dynamo Kyiv65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metal Kharkiv
0.94
Dynamo Kyiv
2.17

Dynamo Kyiv creates 131% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 98 away

creates per match

Metal Kharkiv
0.93
Dynamo Kyiv
2.27

allows per match

Metal Kharkiv
2.07
Dynamo Kyiv
0.95

finishing

Metal Kharkiv+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metal Kharkiv ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Metal Kharkiv or draw
35%
Metal Kharkiv or Dynamo Kyiv
80%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
85%

Winning margin

Metal Kharkiv wins by 2+
5%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Metal Kharkiv 1+ goals
61%
Metal Kharkiv 2+ goals
24%
Metal Kharkiv 3+ goals
7%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
89%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
64%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Metal Kharkiv (draw refunded)
19%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metal Kharkiv at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.95 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metal Kharkiv attack 0.93 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.27 + Metal Kharkiv defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Metal Kharkiv scores more
15%
level
20%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
65%

Dynamo Kyiv at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Maksym Priadun
45+2'
Roberto Corral
46'
B. Boychuk← I. Chaykovskyi
46'
V. Kabaev← N. Voloshyn
47'
Kostiantyn Vivcharenko
48'
Yuriy Romanyuk
60'
M. Bagachanskyi← S. Panasenko
70'
O. Syrota↳ O. Andrievskyi
72'
V. Naumets← B. Boychuk
75'
V. Vanat↳ V. Kabaev
77'
E. Ramírez← V. Vanat
78'
D. Popov← M. Dyachuk
78'
S. Diallo← Benito
81'
M. Pryadun↳ E. Kartushov
82'
Eric Ramírez
86'
Yehor Demchenko
90+1'
K. Vivcharenko↳ V. Buyalskyi

Possession

49%Metal

Shots

4Metal

Statistics

MetalDynamo
Overview
49%Possession51%
4Total Shots14
3Corners9
17Fouls15
Shots
4Total Shots14
2On Target6
2Off Target6
Passing
49%Possession51%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls15
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0

Premier League: Metal Kharkiv 1–3 Dynamo Kyiv

Dynamo Kyiv beat Metal Kharkiv 3-1 in Premier League on April 28, 2023.

Goals: O. Syrota (70'), V. Vanat (75'), M. Pryadun (81'), K. Vivcharenko (90+1').

Dynamo Kyiv controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Uzhhorod.