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Mestre vs Virtus Bolzano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Mestre
Mestre
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
3/23/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 28Stadio Francesco Baracca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mestre46%
×Draw28%
Virtus Bolzano26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mestre
1.35
Virtus Bolzano
0.94

Mestre creates 44% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 34 away

creates per match

Mestre
1.34
Virtus Bolzano
0.88

allows per match

Mestre
0.99
Virtus Bolzano
1.35

finishing

Mestre+0.00on par
Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mestre ↓

Virtus Bolzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mestre or draw
74%
Mestre or Virtus Bolzano
72%
Draw or Virtus Bolzano
54%

Winning margin

Mestre wins by 2+
22%
Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mestre 1+ goals
74%
Mestre 2+ goals
39%
Mestre 3+ goals
15%
Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
61%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
24%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mestre (draw refunded)
64%
Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mestre at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Virtus Bolzano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mestre attack 1.34 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Virtus Bolzano attack 0.88 + Mestre defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mestre scores more
46%
level
28%
Virtus Bolzano scores more
26%

Mestre at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mestre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mestre vs Virtus Bolzano

Mestre beat Virtus Bolzano 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Francesco Baracca in Mestre.