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Mestre vs Union Feltre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Mestre
Mestre
PST
13:30
Union Feltre
Union Feltre
3/15/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 29Stadio Francesco Baracca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mestre34%
×Draw25%
Union Feltre41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mestre
1.33
Union Feltre
1.50

Union Feltre creates 13% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mestre
1.34
Union Feltre
2.00

allows per match

Mestre
0.99
Union Feltre
1.31

finishing

Mestre+0.00on par
Union Feltre+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mestre ↓

Union Feltre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mestre or draw
59%
Mestre or Union Feltre
75%
Draw or Union Feltre
66%

Winning margin

Mestre wins by 2+
15%
Union Feltre wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Mestre 1+ goals
74%
Mestre 2+ goals
38%
Mestre 3+ goals
15%
Union Feltre 1+ goals
78%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
44%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mestre (draw refunded)
45%
Union Feltre (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mestre at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Union Feltre away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mestre attack 1.34 + Union Feltre defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Union Feltre attack 2.00 + Mestre defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mestre scores more
34%
level
25%
Union Feltre scores more
41%

Union Feltre at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mestre host Union Feltre

March 15, 2020: Mestre take on Union Feltre in Serie D - Girone C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mestre host Union Feltre at Stadio Francesco Baracca.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.