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Mestre vs Mori Santo Stefano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Mestre
Mestre
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mori Santo Stefano
Mori Santo Stefano
M. Pinton 35'
A. Viviani 30'
4/21/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 32Stadio Francesco Baracca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mestre62%
×Draw23%
Mori Santo Stefano15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mestre
1.79
Mori Santo Stefano
0.76

Mestre creates 136% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mestre
1.34
Mori Santo Stefano
0.53

allows per match

Mestre
0.99
Mori Santo Stefano
2.24

finishing

Mestre+0.00on par
Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mestre ↓

Mori Santo Stefano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mestre or draw
85%
Mestre or Mori Santo Stefano
77%
Draw or Mori Santo Stefano
38%

Winning margin

Mestre wins by 2+
36%
Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mestre 1+ goals
83%
Mestre 2+ goals
53%
Mestre 3+ goals
26%
Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals
53%
Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals
18%
Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mestre (draw refunded)
80%
Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mestre at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Mori Santo Stefano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mestre attack 1.34 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.79

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.53 + Mestre defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mestre scores more
62%
level
23%
Mori Santo Stefano scores more
15%

Mestre at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Mestre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
A. Viviani
35'
M. Pinton

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mestre vs Mori Santo Stefano

Mestre beat Mori Santo Stefano 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on April 21, 2024.

Goals: A. Viviani (30'), M. Pinton (35').

The match was played at Stadio Francesco Baracca in Mestre.