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Mestre vs Luparense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Mestre
Mestre
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Luparense
Luparense
11/30/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 14Stadio Francesco Baracca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Mestre42%
×Draw27%
Luparense31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mestre
1.32
Luparense
1.10

Mestre creates 20% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 101 away

creates per match

Mestre
1.34
Luparense
1.21

allows per match

Mestre
0.99
Luparense
1.30

finishing

Mestre+0.00on par
Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mestre ↓

Luparense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mestre or draw
69%
Mestre or Luparense
73%
Draw or Luparense
58%

Winning margin

Mestre wins by 2+
19%
Luparense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mestre 1+ goals
73%
Mestre 2+ goals
38%
Mestre 3+ goals
15%
Luparense 1+ goals
67%
Luparense 2+ goals
30%
Luparense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mestre (draw refunded)
57%
Luparense (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mestre at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mestre attack 1.34 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.32

Luparense attack 1.21 + Mestre defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mestre scores more
42%
level
27%
Luparense scores more
31%

Mestre at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mestre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Mestre 0–0 Luparense

Mestre and Luparense drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Francesco Baracca in Mestre.