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Mestre vs Chions — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Mestre
Mestre
FT
1 – 2
Chions
Chions
L. Rivi 89'
U. Vingiano 83'
Unknown 48' (OG)
1/15/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 22Stadio Francesco Baracca (Mestre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Mestre50%
×Draw25%
Chions25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mestre
1.59
Chions
1.04

Mestre creates 53% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 50 away

creates per match

Mestre
1.34
Chions
1.10

allows per match

Mestre
0.99
Chions
1.84

finishing

Mestre+0.00on par
Chions+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mestre ↓

Chions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mestre or draw
75%
Mestre or Chions
75%
Draw or Chions
50%

Winning margin

Mestre wins by 2+
26%
Chions wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mestre 1+ goals
80%
Mestre 2+ goals
47%
Mestre 3+ goals
21%
Chions 1+ goals
65%
Chions 2+ goals
28%
Chions 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mestre (draw refunded)
67%
Chions (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mestre at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Chions away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mestre attack 1.34 + Chions defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.59

Chions attack 1.10 + Mestre defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mestre scores more
50%
level
25%
Chions scores more
25%

Mestre at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mestre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
Own goal
83'
U. Vingiano
89'
L. Rivi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mestre vs Chions

Chions beat Mestre 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on January 15, 2020.

Goals: ? (48' o.g.), U. Vingiano (83'), L. Rivi (89').

The match was played at Stadio Francesco Baracca (Mestre).