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Mestre vs Breno — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Mestre
Mestre
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Breno
Breno
10/8/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 5Stadio Francesco Baracca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mestre45%
×Draw26%
Breno28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mestre
1.44
Breno
1.08

Mestre creates 33% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mestre
1.34
Breno
1.18

allows per match

Mestre
0.99
Breno
1.53

finishing

Mestre+0.00on par
Breno+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mestre ↓

Breno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mestre or draw
72%
Mestre or Breno
74%
Draw or Breno
55%

Winning margin

Mestre wins by 2+
22%
Breno wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mestre 1+ goals
76%
Mestre 2+ goals
42%
Mestre 3+ goals
18%
Breno 1+ goals
66%
Breno 2+ goals
29%
Breno 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mestre (draw refunded)
62%
Breno (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mestre at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Breno away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mestre attack 1.34 + Breno defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Breno attack 1.18 + Mestre defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mestre scores more
45%
level
26%
Breno scores more
28%

Mestre at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mestre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mestre vs Breno

Mestre beat Breno 3-2 in Serie D - Girone C on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Francesco Baracca in Mestre.