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Meshakhte vs Samtredia — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Meshakhte
Meshakhte
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Samtredia
Samtredia
11/29/2025Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 35Agrano Vachadze Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Meshakhte41%
×Draw30%
Samtredia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meshakhte
1.17
Samtredia
0.95

Meshakhte creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Meshakhte
1.00
Samtredia
1.16

allows per match

Meshakhte
0.74
Samtredia
1.33

finishing

Meshakhte+0.00on par
Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meshakhte ↓

Samtredia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Meshakhte or draw
70%
Meshakhte or Samtredia
70%
Draw or Samtredia
59%

Winning margin

Meshakhte wins by 2+
17%
Samtredia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Meshakhte 1+ goals
69%
Meshakhte 2+ goals
33%
Meshakhte 3+ goals
11%
Samtredia 1+ goals
61%
Samtredia 2+ goals
25%
Samtredia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Meshakhte (draw refunded)
58%
Samtredia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meshakhte at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.33 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meshakhte attack 1.00 + Samtredia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Samtredia attack 1.16 + Meshakhte defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Meshakhte scores more
41%
level
30%
Samtredia scores more
30%

Meshakhte at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Meshakhte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meshakhte vs Samtredia

Meshakhte beat Samtredia 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 29, 2025.

The match was played at Agrano Vachadze Stadium.