Meshakhte 3–1 Merani Martvili: Result & Stats

Meshakhte

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Merani Martvili

D. Natchkebia 90'

K. Asamoah 59'

E. Phob 45'

Z. Sikharulia 14'

7/26/2025

David Kipiani Cup · Round of 16Agrano Vachadze Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Meshakhte42%

×Draw20%

Merani Martvili38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeshakhteExpected goals in this matchMerani Martvili

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

2.08

Meshakhte

2.17

Merani Martvili

2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.83

creates per match

2.83

1.33

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Meshakhte

1.83

Merani Martvili

2.83

allows per match

Meshakhte

1.33

Merani Martvili

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meshakhte+0.00on par

Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meshakhte ↓

Merani Martvili →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Meshakhte or draw

62%

Meshakhte or Merani Martvili

80%

Draw or Merani Martvili

58%

Winning margin

Meshakhte wins by 2+

23%

Merani Martvili wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Meshakhte 1+ goals

89%

Meshakhte 2+ goals

64%

Meshakhte 3+ goals

36%

Merani Martvili 1+ goals

87%

Merani Martvili 2+ goals

61%

Merani Martvili 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Meshakhte (draw refunded)

52%

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meshakhte at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 2.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meshakhte attack 1.83 + Merani Martvili defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.17

Merani Martvili attack 2.83 + Meshakhte defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Meshakhte scores more

42%

level

20%

Merani Martvili scores more

38%

Meshakhte at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Meshakhte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

45'

59'

90'

Meshakhte

Merani

Manager: L. Burduli

Manager: G. Khelaia