Meshakhte 4–0 Matchakhela: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Meshakhte

FT

4 – 0

Matchakhela

4/18/2024

Liga 3 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Meshakhte80%

×Draw13%

Matchakhela7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeshakhteExpected goals in this matchMatchakhela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

0.67

Meshakhte

2.70

Matchakhela

0.67

Meshakhte creates 303% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

2.00

creates per match

0.87

0.47

allows per match

3.40

creates per match

Meshakhte

2.00

Matchakhela

0.87

allows per match

Meshakhte

0.47

Matchakhela

3.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meshakhte+0.00on par

Matchakhela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meshakhte ↓

Matchakhela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Meshakhte or draw

93%

Meshakhte or Matchakhela

87%

Draw or Matchakhela

20%

Winning margin

Meshakhte wins by 2+

59%

Matchakhela wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Meshakhte 1+ goals

93%

Meshakhte 2+ goals

75%

Meshakhte 3+ goals

50%

Matchakhela 1+ goals

49%

Matchakhela 2+ goals

15%

Matchakhela 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Meshakhte (draw refunded)

92%

Matchakhela (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meshakhte at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Matchakhela away — creates 0.87, concedes 3.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meshakhte attack 2.00 + Matchakhela defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.70

Matchakhela attack 0.87 + Meshakhte defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Meshakhte scores more

80%

level

13%

Matchakhela scores more

7%

Meshakhte at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Meshakhte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff