Meshakhte 1–2 Dinamo Batumi: Result & Stats

Meshakhte

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Batumi

G. Bukhaidze 54'

B. Tambedou 87' (pen)

D. Mujiri 45+9'

8/14/2024

David Kipiani Cup · Round of 16Stadioni Vladimer Bochorishvili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Meshakhte22%

×Draw19%

Dinamo Batumi58%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeshakhteExpected goals in this matchDinamo Batumi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.38

Meshakhte

1.42

Dinamo Batumi

2.38

Dinamo Batumi creates 68% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

2.75

2.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Meshakhte

1.33

Dinamo Batumi

2.75

allows per match

Meshakhte

2.00

Dinamo Batumi

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meshakhte+0.00on par

Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meshakhte ↓

Dinamo Batumi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Meshakhte or draw

42%

Meshakhte or Dinamo Batumi

81%

Draw or Dinamo Batumi

78%

Winning margin

Meshakhte wins by 2+

9%

Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Meshakhte 1+ goals

76%

Meshakhte 2+ goals

41%

Meshakhte 3+ goals

17%

Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals

91%

Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals

68%

Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Meshakhte (draw refunded)

28%

Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meshakhte at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Dinamo Batumi away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meshakhte attack 1.33 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dinamo Batumi attack 2.75 + Meshakhte defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Meshakhte scores more

22%

level

19%

Dinamo Batumi scores more

58%

Dinamo Batumi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dinamo Batumi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

M. Kobakhidze← Jean Victor

45+9'

D. Mujiri

54'

G. Bukhaidze

63'

Jalen Blesa← D. Mujiri

68'

Z. Gugeshashvili← G. Guldedava

78'

G. Burduli← N. Abuladze

87'

B. TambedouPenalty

89'

D. Inaishvili← D. Pachulia

90'

D. Todua← G. Talakhadze

Meshakhte

Dinamo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: L. Burduli

68'▲Z. Gugeshashvili←▼G. Guldedava

78'▲G. Burduli←▼N. Abuladze

90'▲D. Todua←▼G. Talakhadze

Meshakhte substitutes

GugeshashviliBurduliToduaBegalishviliAbashidzeTatunashvili

Manager: A. Demchenko

15'▲M. Kobakhidze←▼Jean Victor

63'▲Jalen Blesa←▼D. Mujiri

89'▲D. Inaishvili←▼D. Pachulia

Dinamo Batumi substitutes

KobakhidzeBlesaInaishviliPutkaradzeKharatishviliSilva

David Kipiani Cup: Meshakhte 1–2 Dinamo Batumi

Dinamo Batumi beat Meshakhte 2-1 in David Kipiani Cup on August 14, 2024.

Goals: D. Mujiri (45+9'), G. Bukhaidze (54'), B. Tambedou (87' pen).

The match was played at Stadioni Vladimer Bochorishvili in Tkibuli.

Meshakhte vs Dinamo Batumi — David Kipiani Cup 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

David Kipiani Cup: Meshakhte 1–2 Dinamo Batumi