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Meshakhte vs Betlemi — Liga 3 2024

Meshakhte
Meshakhte
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Betlemi
Betlemi
9/5/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Meshakhte70%
×Draw18%
Betlemi13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meshakhte
2.37
Betlemi
0.90

Meshakhte creates 163% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 38 away

creates per match

Meshakhte
2.00
Betlemi
1.32

allows per match

Meshakhte
0.47
Betlemi
2.74

finishing

Meshakhte+0.00on par
Betlemi+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meshakhte ↓

Betlemi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Meshakhte or draw
87%
Meshakhte or Betlemi
82%
Draw or Betlemi
30%

Winning margin

Meshakhte wins by 2+
47%
Betlemi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Meshakhte 1+ goals
91%
Meshakhte 2+ goals
68%
Meshakhte 3+ goals
42%
Betlemi 1+ goals
59%
Betlemi 2+ goals
23%
Betlemi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Meshakhte (draw refunded)
85%
Betlemi (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meshakhte at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Betlemi away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.74 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meshakhte attack 2.00 + Betlemi defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.37

Betlemi attack 1.32 + Meshakhte defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Meshakhte scores more
70%
level
18%
Betlemi scores more
13%

Meshakhte at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Meshakhte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Meshakhte 4–1 Betlemi

Meshakhte beat Betlemi 4-1 in Liga 3 on September 5, 2024.