Meshakhte 1–0 Algeti: Result & Stats

Meshakhte

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Algeti

11/12/2013

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Group A - 11Stadioni Vladimer Bochorishvili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Meshakhte51%

×Draw26%

Algeti23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeshakhteExpected goals in this matchAlgeti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.91

Meshakhte

1.50

Algeti

0.91

Meshakhte creates 65% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 5 away

1.19

creates per match

1.00

0.81

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Meshakhte

1.19

Algeti

1.00

allows per match

Meshakhte

0.81

Algeti

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meshakhte+0.00on par

Algeti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meshakhte ↓

Algeti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Meshakhte or draw

77%

Meshakhte or Algeti

74%

Draw or Algeti

49%

Winning margin

Meshakhte wins by 2+

26%

Algeti wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Meshakhte 1+ goals

78%

Meshakhte 2+ goals

44%

Meshakhte 3+ goals

19%

Algeti 1+ goals

60%

Algeti 2+ goals

23%

Algeti 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Meshakhte (draw refunded)

69%

Algeti (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meshakhte at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

Algeti away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meshakhte attack 1.19 + Algeti defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Algeti attack 1.00 + Meshakhte defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Meshakhte scores more

51%

level

26%

Algeti scores more

23%

Meshakhte at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Meshakhte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff