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Algeti vs Meshakhte — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Algeti
Algeti
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Meshakhte
Meshakhte
4/28/2015Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Group B - 32Stadioni Torpedo-Avaza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Algeti45%
×Draw27%
Meshakhte28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeti
1.43
Meshakhte
1.06

Algeti creates 35% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 26 away

creates per match

Algeti
2.00
Meshakhte
0.92

allows per match

Algeti
1.20
Meshakhte
0.85

finishing

Algeti+0.00on par
Meshakhte+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeti ↓

Meshakhte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Algeti or draw
72%
Algeti or Meshakhte
73%
Draw or Meshakhte
55%

Winning margin

Algeti wins by 2+
22%
Meshakhte wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Algeti 1+ goals
76%
Algeti 2+ goals
42%
Algeti 3+ goals
17%
Meshakhte 1+ goals
65%
Meshakhte 2+ goals
29%
Meshakhte 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Algeti (draw refunded)
62%
Meshakhte (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeti at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Meshakhte away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeti attack 2.00 + Meshakhte defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.43

Meshakhte attack 0.92 + Algeti defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Algeti scores more
45%
level
27%
Meshakhte scores more
28%

Algeti at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Algeti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Algeti 0–0 Meshakhte

Algeti and Meshakhte drew 0-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on April 28, 2015.

The match was played at Stadioni Torpedo-Avaza in Tbilisi.