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Meševo vs Toplicanin Prokuplje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Meševo
Meševo
FT
3 – 2
Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
4/22/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 23Stadion FK Meševo Doljane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Meševo58%
×Draw22%
Toplicanin Prokuplje20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meševo
2.00
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.10

Meševo creates 82% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 42 away

creates per match

Meševo
2.00
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.10

allows per match

Meševo
1.11
Toplicanin Prokuplje
2.00

finishing

Meševo+0.00on par
Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meševo ↓

Toplicanin Prokuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Meševo or draw
80%
Meševo or Toplicanin Prokuplje
78%
Draw or Toplicanin Prokuplje
42%

Winning margin

Meševo wins by 2+
35%
Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Meševo 1+ goals
86%
Meševo 2+ goals
59%
Meševo 3+ goals
32%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
67%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
30%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Meševo (draw refunded)
74%
Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meševo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meševo attack 2.00 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.10 + Meševo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Meševo scores more
58%
level
22%
Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
20%

Meševo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Meševo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Meševo 3–2 Toplicanin Prokuplje

Meševo beat Toplicanin Prokuplje 3-2 in Srpska Liga - East on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Meševo Doljane in Meševo.