Meševo 1–2 Timok Zaječar: Result & Stats

Meševo

FT

1 – 2

Timok Zaječar

4/8/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 21Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Meševo53%

×Draw23%

Timok Zaječar23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeševoExpected goals in this matchTimok Zaječar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.08

Meševo

1.77

Timok Zaječar

1.08

Meševo creates 64% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 64 away

2.00

creates per match

1.06

1.11

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Meševo

2.00

Timok Zaječar

1.06

allows per match

Meševo

1.11

Timok Zaječar

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meševo+0.00on par

Timok Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meševo ↓

Timok Zaječar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Meševo or draw

77%

Meševo or Timok Zaječar

77%

Draw or Timok Zaječar

47%

Winning margin

Meševo wins by 2+

30%

Timok Zaječar wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Meševo 1+ goals

83%

Meševo 2+ goals

53%

Meševo 3+ goals

26%

Timok Zaječar 1+ goals

66%

Timok Zaječar 2+ goals

29%

Timok Zaječar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Meševo (draw refunded)

70%

Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meševo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

Timok Zaječar away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meševo attack 2.00 + Timok Zaječar defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.77

Timok Zaječar attack 1.06 + Meševo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Meševo scores more

53%

level

23%

Timok Zaječar scores more

23%

Meševo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Meševo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff