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Meševo vs Timočanin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Meševo
Meševo
FT
3 – 2
Timočanin
Timočanin
6/5/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 30Stadion FK Meševo Doljane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Meševo55%
×Draw23%
Timočanin22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meševo
1.83
Timočanin
1.08

Meševo creates 69% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 73 away

creates per match

Meševo
2.00
Timočanin
1.05

allows per match

Meševo
1.11
Timočanin
1.67

finishing

Meševo+0.00on par
Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meševo ↓

Timočanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Meševo or draw
78%
Meševo or Timočanin
77%
Draw or Timočanin
45%

Winning margin

Meševo wins by 2+
31%
Timočanin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Meševo 1+ goals
84%
Meševo 2+ goals
54%
Meševo 3+ goals
28%
Timočanin 1+ goals
66%
Timočanin 2+ goals
29%
Timočanin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Meševo (draw refunded)
71%
Timočanin (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meševo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meševo attack 2.00 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Timočanin attack 1.05 + Meševo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Meševo scores more
55%
level
23%
Timočanin scores more
22%

Meševo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Meševo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meševo vs Timočanin

Meševo beat Timočanin 3-2 in Srpska Liga - East on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Meševo Doljane in Mesevo.