Meševo 2–2 Sinđelić: Result & Stats

Meševo

FT

2 – 2

Sinđelić

9/3/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 4Stadion FK Meševo Doljane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Meševo51%

×Draw23%

Sinđelić26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeševoExpected goals in this matchSinđelić

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.22

Meševo

1.79

Sinđelić

1.22

Meševo creates 47% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 72 away

2.00

creates per match

1.32

1.11

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Meševo

2.00

Sinđelić

1.32

allows per match

Meševo

1.11

Sinđelić

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meševo+0.00on par

Sinđelić+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meševo ↓

Sinđelić →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Meševo or draw

74%

Meševo or Sinđelić

77%

Draw or Sinđelić

49%

Winning margin

Meševo wins by 2+

28%

Sinđelić wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Meševo 1+ goals

83%

Meševo 2+ goals

53%

Meševo 3+ goals

26%

Sinđelić 1+ goals

70%

Sinđelić 2+ goals

34%

Sinđelić 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Meševo (draw refunded)

66%

Sinđelić (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meševo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

Sinđelić away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meševo attack 2.00 + Sinđelić defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sinđelić attack 1.32 + Meševo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Meševo scores more

51%

level

23%

Sinđelić scores more

26%

Meševo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Meševo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff