Meševo 2–1 Radnički Svilajnac: Result & Stats

Meševo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Radnički Svilajnac

9/30/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 8Stadion FK Meševo Doljane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Meševo50%

×Draw23%

Radnički Svilajnac27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeševoExpected goals in this matchRadnički Svilajnac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.24

Meševo

1.77

Radnički Svilajnac

1.24

Meševo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 78 away

2.00

creates per match

1.37

1.11

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Meševo

2.00

Radnički Svilajnac

1.37

allows per match

Meševo

1.11

Radnički Svilajnac

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meševo+0.00on par

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meševo ↓

Radnički Svilajnac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Meševo or draw

73%

Meševo or Radnički Svilajnac

77%

Draw or Radnički Svilajnac

50%

Winning margin

Meševo wins by 2+

27%

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Meševo 1+ goals

83%

Meševo 2+ goals

53%

Meševo 3+ goals

26%

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals

71%

Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals

35%

Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Meševo (draw refunded)

65%

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meševo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

Radnički Svilajnac away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meševo attack 2.00 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.77

Radnički Svilajnac attack 1.37 + Meševo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Meševo scores more

50%

level

23%

Radnički Svilajnac scores more

27%

Meševo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Meševo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff