Meševo 1–0 Dubočica: Result & Stats

Meševo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dubočica

4/16/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 22Stadion FK Meševo Doljane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Meševo42%

×Draw25%

Dubočica33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeševoExpected goals in this matchDubočica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.34

Meševo

1.54

Dubočica

1.34

Meševo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 37 away

2.00

creates per match

1.57

1.11

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Meševo

2.00

Dubočica

1.57

allows per match

Meševo

1.11

Dubočica

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meševo+0.00on par

Dubočica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meševo ↓

Dubočica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Meševo or draw

67%

Meševo or Dubočica

75%

Draw or Dubočica

58%

Winning margin

Meševo wins by 2+

21%

Dubočica wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Meševo 1+ goals

79%

Meševo 2+ goals

45%

Meševo 3+ goals

20%

Dubočica 1+ goals

74%

Dubočica 2+ goals

39%

Dubočica 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Meševo (draw refunded)

56%

Dubočica (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meševo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

Dubočica away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meševo attack 2.00 + Dubočica defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dubočica attack 1.57 + Meševo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Meševo scores more

42%

level

25%

Dubočica scores more

33%

Meševo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Meševo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff