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Mes Soongoun vs Shahre Raz — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Soongoun
Mes Soongoun
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shahre Raz
Shahre Raz
10/1/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mes Soongoun45%
×Draw31%
Shahre Raz24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Soongoun
1.17
Shahre Raz
0.76

Mes Soongoun creates 54% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 34 away

creates per match

Mes Soongoun
1.08
Shahre Raz
0.65

allows per match

Mes Soongoun
0.86
Shahre Raz
1.26

finishing

Mes Soongoun+0.00on par
Shahre Raz+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Soongoun ↓

Shahre Raz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mes Soongoun or draw
76%
Mes Soongoun or Shahre Raz
69%
Draw or Shahre Raz
55%

Winning margin

Mes Soongoun wins by 2+
20%
Shahre Raz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mes Soongoun 1+ goals
69%
Mes Soongoun 2+ goals
33%
Mes Soongoun 3+ goals
11%
Shahre Raz 1+ goals
53%
Shahre Raz 2+ goals
18%
Shahre Raz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)
66%
Shahre Raz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Soongoun at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Shahre Raz away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Soongoun attack 1.08 + Shahre Raz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Shahre Raz attack 0.65 + Mes Soongoun defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mes Soongoun scores more
45%
level
31%
Shahre Raz scores more
24%

Mes Soongoun at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mes Soongoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Soongoun vs Shahre Raz

Shahre Raz beat Mes Soongoun 1-0 in Azadegan League on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium in Tabriz.