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Mes Soongoun vs Shahrdari Noshahr — Azadegan League 2025

Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League·2025
Mes Soongoun
Mes Soongoun
Preview
16:15
Shahrdari Noshahr
Shahrdari Noshahr
Date
Jul 16, 2026, 4:15 PM
Tournament
Azadegan League · Regular Season - 34
42%
Mes Soongoun
model favours
42%39%19%

100% of Shahrdari Noshahr’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
86%
under 2.5 goals
21%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mes Soongoun42%
×Draw39%
Shahrdari Noshahr19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Soongoun
0.83
Shahrdari Noshahr
0.46

Mes Soongoun creates 80% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Mes Soongoun
1.00
Shahrdari Noshahr
0.33

allows per match

Mes Soongoun
0.60
Shahrdari Noshahr
0.67

finishing

Mes Soongoun+0.00on par
Shahrdari Noshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Under
  • Under86
  • Over14

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

79%No
  • No79
  • Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Soongoun ↓

Shahrdari Noshahr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–028%
0–113%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–111%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (28%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
72%28%1.5
37%63%2.5
14%86%3.5
4%96%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Mes Soongoun or draw
81%
Mes Soongoun or Shahrdari Noshahr
61%
Draw or Shahrdari Noshahr
58%

Winning margin

Mes Soongoun wins by 2+
14%
Shahrdari Noshahr wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mes Soongoun 1+ goals
56%
Mes Soongoun 2+ goals
20%
Mes Soongoun 3+ goals
5%
Shahrdari Noshahr 1+ goals
37%
Shahrdari Noshahr 2+ goals
8%
Shahrdari Noshahr 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)
69%
Shahrdari Noshahr (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
10%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Soongoun at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Shahrdari Noshahr away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Soongoun attack 1.00 + Shahrdari Noshahr defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Shahrdari Noshahr attack 0.33 + Mes Soongoun defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mes Soongoun scores more
42%
level
39%
Shahrdari Noshahr scores more
19%

Mes Soongoun at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mes Soongoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Mes Soongoun score first in only 9% of matches
  • 91% of Mes Soongoun’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Mes Soongoun are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Shahrdari Noshahr score first in only 30% of matches
  • Mes Soongoun and Shahrdari Noshahr have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Soongoun
DWDDD
Noshahr
DLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mes Soongoun face Shahrdari Noshahr (Azadegan League)

Azadegan League returns with Mes Soongoun hosting Shahrdari Noshahr. Match starts July 16, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.