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Mes Soongoun vs Paykan — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Soongoun
Mes Soongoun
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Paykan
Paykan
M. Sharifi 89' (pen)
A. Fathi 33'
2/19/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 22Bonyan Diesel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mes Soongoun30%
×Draw32%
Paykan38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Soongoun
0.86
Paykan
1.02

Paykan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mes Soongoun
1.08
Paykan
1.18

allows per match

Mes Soongoun
0.86
Paykan
0.65

finishing

Mes Soongoun+0.00on par
Paykan+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Soongoun ↓

Paykan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mes Soongoun or draw
62%
Mes Soongoun or Paykan
68%
Draw or Paykan
70%

Winning margin

Mes Soongoun wins by 2+
10%
Paykan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mes Soongoun 1+ goals
58%
Mes Soongoun 2+ goals
21%
Mes Soongoun 3+ goals
6%
Paykan 1+ goals
64%
Paykan 2+ goals
27%
Paykan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)
44%
Paykan (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Soongoun at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Paykan away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Soongoun attack 1.08 + Paykan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.86

Paykan attack 1.18 + Mes Soongoun defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mes Soongoun scores more
30%
level
32%
Paykan scores more
38%

Paykan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
A. Fathi
89'
M. SharifiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Soongoun vs Paykan

Paykan beat Mes Soongoun 2-0 in Azadegan League on February 19, 2025.

Goals: A. Fathi (33'), M. Sharifi (89' pen).

The match was played at Bonyan Diesel Stadium in Tabriz.