Mes Soongoun 2–2 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Mes Soongoun

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Naft Masjed Soleyman

4/16/2025

Azadegan League · Round 29Sardar Soleimani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mes Soongoun41%

×Draw30%

Naft Masjed Soleyman29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mes SoongounExpected goals in this matchNaft Masjed Soleyman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.90

Mes Soongoun

1.15

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.90

Mes Soongoun creates 28% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 34 away

1.08

creates per match

0.94

0.86

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Mes Soongoun

1.08

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.94

allows per match

Mes Soongoun

0.86

Naft Masjed Soleyman

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mes Soongoun+0.00on par

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Soongoun ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mes Soongoun or draw

71%

Mes Soongoun or Naft Masjed Soleyman

70%

Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman

59%

Winning margin

Mes Soongoun wins by 2+

18%

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mes Soongoun 1+ goals

68%

Mes Soongoun 2+ goals

32%

Mes Soongoun 3+ goals

11%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals

59%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals

23%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)

59%

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Soongoun at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Soongoun attack 1.08 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.94 + Mes Soongoun defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mes Soongoun scores more

41%

level

30%

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more

29%

Mes Soongoun at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mes Soongoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff